UFC 268 Predictions

After a tremendous show in UFC 267, the UFC returns to New York City this weekend for UFC 268: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 2. Overall, UFC 268 appears to be a jam-packed show, with two title fights and a significant lightweight duel on deck.

With plenty to keep all UFC fans entertained, this is one event that no one should miss. With that in mind, the following are the predictions for UFC 268: Colby Covington vs. Kamaru Usman 2.

Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington for the UFC welterweight title

If we're being honest, this fight doesn't make a lot of sense on paper. We've seen it before, at UFC 245 in December of 2019. Kamaru Usman defeated Colby Covington in the fifth round to make the first defence of his newly-won UFC welterweight title. By no means was it a one-sided battle, but Usman was ahead heading into the last round and clinched the deal by ending 'Chaos.'

Covington has only fought once since then, a late TKO of Tyron Woodley, and in all honesty, he hasn't fully earned this rematch.

Usman, on the other hand, has wreaked havoc on the division, dispatching Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal twice. Every time he's entered the octagon, he's looked better.

So, what's the deal with the UFC booking this fight? Essentially, it's because Usman currently lacks a clear No. 1 contender. Covington is at least a well-known figure in the division who isn't afraid to spew trash.

Surprisingly, 'Chaos' doesn't seem to have said much in the lead-up to this one. After all, how do you offend someone who has already had their jaw broken?

So, does Covington have a chance this time to dethrone 'The Nigerian Nightmare'? It has scepticism about it.

However, against Usman, that menace is mostly absent. In his UFC career, 'The Nigerian Nightmare' has never been defeated, and it doesn't appear that Covington will be the one to change that. He couldn't do it in five rounds two years ago.

As a result, it will be up to 'Chaos' to strike with the champion. While he is a skilled boxer, he lacks Usman's punching strength and lacks the ramrod jab that 'The Nigerian Nightmare' has developed.

Overall, it doesn't seem like enough has changed since their first fight to make choosing Covington in this one worthwhile. Usman's striking has improved even more since then, therefore he'll almost certainly end his opponent faster this time.

The Pick: Usman via third-round TKO

UFC strawweight title: Rose Namajunas vs. Weili Zhang

This UFC title fight is a rematch, just like the main event. Unlike Usman vs. Covington, however, this battle appears to be a little more deserved. At UFC 261 in April, Rose Namajunas, the only two-time champion in UFC strawweight history, defeated Weili Zhang to win the title. The fight proceeded so swiftly – and so savagely – that the UFC had no choice but to grant Zhang a rematch right now.

Is it possible for Zhang to reclaim the crown this time? She has the raw ability and, if nothing else, she won't be taken down in under a minute this time.

However, it's difficult to shake the impression that Namajunas is a poor stylistic match for 'Magnum.'

Zhang, one of the most highly regarded talents to have come out of China, made his UFC debut in 2018. She won three fights in a row, the last of which was a decision victory over Tecia Torres.

Many fans expected her to have a successful year in 2019, but few expected the UFC to grant her a shot at the strawweight belt. Few expected Zhang to defeat then-champion Jessica Andrade in the first round, but she did so, harnessing her aggression and surprising her with tremendous striking power.

Zhang's second battle was an instant classic with Joanna Jedrzejczyk, in which she demonstrated her incredible toughness and cardio. She went under the moniker 'Thug Rose' after taking a year off.

Zhang is a strong technical striker with a lot of power, and she's also good on the ground and can submit opponents when she's at her best.

However, for as good as Zhang is on his feet, Namajunas appears to be superior. Namajunas knocked out Jedrzejczyk in their first fight and then took her apart with her jab in their second.

Yes, she lost against Andrade, but it was in about she was obviously dominating, and the end was virtually by chance. Namajunas essentially went too hard on a kimura attempt and was slammed on her head. Last year, she made amends for that error by comfortably defeating Andrade.

Essentially, all evidence suggests that while 'Thug Rose' may not be as powerful a striker as Zhang, she is technically superior to the rest of the strawweight division's competitors.

That implies that, while Zhang only needs one shot to put Namajunas away, finding that shot will be difficult – especially since Namajunas appears to be significantly speedier than Zhang.

Zhang's best strategy may be to clench and grind Namajunas down, similar to what Karolina Kowalkiewicz did in 2016. However, as a result of that loss, ‘Thug Rose' has emerged, and it may be more difficult to obtain. This isn't an impossible fight for 'Magnum,' but it appears that she'll be on the losing end once more.

The Pick: Namajunas via unanimous decision

UFC 268: The Main Card

Justin Gaethje takes on Michael Chandler in a lightweight fight in UFC 268's third main event. Both of these fighters are among the most entertaining in the promotion, and they're both in contention for a lightweight title opportunity.

It should be a tough choice, too, because both wrestlers have similar approaches in that they prefer to hit. The key difference between Gaethje and Chandler, who was stopped by Charles Oliveira in his last bout, maybe that Gaethje has fewer miles on him and appears to be more durable.

Expect a tremendous war, but Gaethje should be the one to raise his hand - most likely via KO. Shane Burgos takes on Billy Quarantillo in the featherweight class. Burgos has won two consecutive fights, but his stature, punching skills, and pressuring style make him one of the most dangerous 145lbers in the division.

Quarantillo, on the other hand, is aggressive and dangerous in equal measure. Despite having a solid UFC record, he hasn't faced the calibre of opposition that Burgos has faced, nor does he have the strength that 'The Hurricane' possesses. This could be a thrilling fight, but Burgos should win by decision or late stoppage.

Finally, in a bantamweight bout, Frankie Edgar takes on Marlon Vera. This would have been an easy choice for Edgar a few years ago. Even if a finish wasn't possible, he would have likely used his boxing, wrestling, and cardio to just outwork 'Chito.'

But it's difficult not to be concerned about ‘The Answer' here. He's only won one of his last four fights, and he's been knocked out twice recently. He's probably done at this level at 40, and with a career of wars behind him - and Vera is more than capable of taking him out. The choice is KO's Vera.

UFC 268: The Prelims

UFC middleweight division: Alex Pereira vs. Andreas Michailidis

UFC lightweight division: Al Iaquinta vs. Bobby Green

UFC middleweight division: Phil Hawes vs. Chris Curtis

UFC middleweight division: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Nassourdine Imavov

UFC welterweight division: Ian Garry vs. Jordan Williams

UFC heavyweight division: Gian Villante vs. Chris Barnett

UFC flyweight division: CJ Vergara vs. Ode Osbourne

UFC light-heavyweight division: John Allan vs. Dustin Jacoby

UFC featherweight division: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Bruno Souza

Picks in bold