UFC 270 predictions

We could see the start of one rivalry and the end of another depending on who has their hands raised at the end of the night. That's the foundation for UFC 270, which features a heavyweight title unification match between Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane and a third flyweight title fight between Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo.

The main event pits Ngannou against Gane, two of MMA's most gifted heavyweights, a pair of large men who mix unquestionable strength with surprising quickness. Ngannou has defeated his opponents with some of the most devastating knockouts we've ever seen inside the cage, while Gane has never lost a fight. Add in plenty of personal drama from the Frenchmen's shared relationship with coach Fernand Lopez, as well as a previous sparring session in which Ngannou alleges he accidentally put Gane to sleep, and you have the makings of a classic series, regardless of who wins tonight.

However, there are problems that may prevent this from being a one-and-done collision. Ngannou has spoken out about his future contract discussions, stating that he wants to not only be fairly compensated but also to be given the opportunity to box if a crossover battle with Tyson Fury is pursued. If Ngannou wins, a title clause might bind him to the promotion for the rest of his career; if he loses, it could open the door for him to stroll into the boxing world. Ngannou's reign at the top of the division seemed unfathomable a year ago, but that's the real fans will face if Gane can show the oddsmakers wrong and turn his interim title into an outright championship.

Moreno's battle with Figueiredo isn't quite as exciting because they're fighting for the third time in a row, despite the fact that there are two apparent challengers waiting in the wings for the champion. However, neither Askar Askarov nor Alexandre Pantoja (the former having previously fought Moreno to a split draw and the latter having two wins over Moreno) was available to fight at the UFC's first pay-per-view of 2021, so Figueiredo was given the chance to reclaim his title, with Moreno eager to fight in January.

A win for Moreno keeps his happy narrative going and puts to rest any doubts about whether his overwhelming victory over Figueiredo at UFC 263 was just a fluke. It would also put Figueiredo on a long road back to another title chance, or even a new path at bantamweight altogether. One could argue that seeing Moreno and Figueiredo fight again is too soon, but who can complain about watching arguably the finest flyweights in the world square off once more?

In additional main card action, Michel Pereira welcomes PFL and Bellator veteran Andre Fialho to the UFC's welterweight division, Cody Stamann battles Said Nurmagomedov in a bantamweight bout, and Trevin Giles fights undefeated Contender Series signing Michael Morales at 170 pounds.

Francis Ngannou (1) vs. Ciryl Gane (3)

Despite his incredible highlight reel, Francis Ngannou isn't a huge favorite too often. He was an underdog against former champion Cain Velasquez and in his second fight with Curtis Blaydes because of Blaydes' impressive wrestling credentials. He was only slightly favored over Stipe Miocic in their rematch due to Miocic humiliating him in their first meeting, and he was an underdog against former champion Cain Velasquez and in his second fight with Curtis Blaydes because of Blaydes' impressive wrestling credentials. Ngannou's ferocity is rarely represented in the odds, as he enters his highly anticipated grudge bout with Ciryl Gane as an underdog once more.

It's very understandable. While Ngannou's victory against Miocic reaffirmed his status as MMA's foremost destroyer of worlds, that victory came over a year ago, and Gane has been busy since then. He followed up an unimpressive win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik with a somewhat more impressive (and no less lopsided) decision win over Alexander Volkov, and then a much-needed finish over Derrick Lewis. In this world of "what have you done for me lately," Gane has impressed during Ngannou's absence, and it's now entirely plausible that he will soon be the heavyweight champion.

I'm not ready to write off Ngannou yet. It worries me that he might have one foot out the door and be thinking about chances outside of the UFC, but I don't believe his aggressiveness will enable him to take Gane lightly. He's improved noticeably since joining Xtreme Couture with coach Eric Nicksick and adding maturity to his already remarkable skill set and physical abilities is almost unfair. If the only edge you want to give him over Gane is power, that's OK, but it's a huge advantage.

Gane has the ability to outwork Ngannou and maybe put his Cameroonian adversary to rest for good. "Bon Gamin" has an uncanny ability to wait and will not rush the action, preferring to wait for Ngannou to approach him while strategically picking him apart. At the first sign of a mistake, he'll have a counter ready to down Ngannou. Ngannou, on the other hand, is well aware of this, so we should all brace ourselves for a few rounds akin to Ngannou's iconic staring contest with Lewis.

Everyone loses, and the best learn from their mistakes. That's what I expect will happen to Gane, a fantastic fighter who happens to come up against one of MMA's top pound-for-pound fighters at the wrong time. These two will fight again, and this time it will be Ngannou who will be in command. Ngannou was knocked out in the third round.

Pick: Ngannou

Deiveson Figueiredo (1) vs. Brandon Moreno (1) (2)

Deiveson Figueiredo has said everything you want to hear from a boxer trying to get their first win against an opponent who appears to have their number: He's in good shape, his nutrition is better than it's ever been, he's focused, he's had the best summer camp of his life, and so on. He's even taken on a new media persona (though coach Eric Albarracin may be influencing this more directly than either man would like to let on). Figueiredo was the boogeyman of the flyweight class not long ago, so why can't he finally defeat Brandon Moreno?

Because Moreno's victory wasn't an accident. It's possible that Figueiredo wasn't at his best, but it's also feasible that "The Assassin Baby" is just superior. When Moreno first broke onto the scene as a wide-eyed 22-year-old, grappling was his bread-and-butter, and it played a key role in him finishing Figueiredo. He's also improved his striking to the point that he was really knocking Figueiredo off his feet. Even if I believe Figueiredo's most bullish predictions, I don't think he's suddenly discovered the key to defeating Moreno.

I predict this to be closer to their first bout than their second, which implies scorecards will be used once more. This time, though, Moreno will be declared the winner, and we may not see Figueiredo at 125 pounds again in the near future.

Pick: Moreno

Andre Fialho vs. Michel Pereira

Michel Pereira, as unpredictable as he is, should find this to be a very advantageous matchup. Especially since he's been showing a more consistent side of late as he tries to establish himself as a real contender at 170 pounds (boring, I know).

Andre Fialho is a seasoned hitter. He'll march forward, wait for the ideal moment, and then unleash a barrage of direct heat on Pereira's chin. The issue is that Pereira rarely stays in one place for long periods of time. He's a hummingbird at his most energetic, and you can bet he won't let Fialho cut the cage off. Fialho is a formidable power puncher, no doubt, but he'll have trouble connecting cleanly against Pereira. Fialho's frustration will eventually get the best of him, and he'll stray into one of Pereira's acrobatic moves before succumbing to a flurry before the third round.

Pick: Pereira

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Cody Stamann

Even if Said isn't related to Khabib Nurmagomedov, the name Nurmagomedov carries a lot of weight, and Cody Stamann's best path to winning is pressure, pressure, and more pressure.

Nurmagomedov is a dynamic striker who excels at long range but can also produce power fast when playing close to the goal. It's up to Stamann to throw him off by timing his flurry, incorporating takedowns, and making this fight as unpleasant as possible. He's more than capable of it, however, his lack of a finisher's reputation will restrict his ability to terrify Nurmagomedov. If he can't bring this one to the mat at least once in a while, he'll find himself in a standup fight he doesn't want to be in.

Even if Stamann can keep up the pace and attack with volume, avoiding Nurmagomedov's imaginative and precise strikes for 15 minutes would be challenging. Nurmagomedov will win this one with a knockdown or a stagger, and I expect him to have done more than enough damage to secure a decision win before the end of the fight.

Pick: Nurmagomedov

Michael Morales vs. Trevin Giles

Trevin Giles showed a lot of promise at 185 pounds, so it'll be interesting to see what he can do at a lower weight. He's a fantastic athlete with quick hands and good cardio. He doesn't have a clear A+ skill, but being well-rounded can get you a long way inside the octagon, and a lighter build can help him.

It's even more impossible to predict how Michael Morales will appear in his debut. The Ecuadorian is still a work in progress at 22 years old, but he'll have come a long way since we last saw him on the Contender Series in September. Morales has a strong wrestling foundation and has already proven to be a skilled attacker.

Because Morales has encountered relatively weak competition thus far, I inclined toward Giles' experience. He's demonstrated he's a cut above the opponents he's fought, but Giles has all the skills he needs to defuse Morales in this incarnation. If this bout took place a year later, the outcome might be quite different; right now, I envision Giles delivering Morales a reality check and surprising him with a back submission.

Pick: Giles

Preliminaries

• Victor Henry def. Raoni Barcelos
• Jack Della Maddalena def. Pete Rodriguez
• Tony Gravely def. Saimon Oliveira
• Matt Frevola def. Genaro Valdez
• Vanessa Demopoulos def. Silvana Gomez Juarez
• Kay Hansen def. Jasmine Jasudavicius