UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 Full Fight Card Predictions

This weekend's UFC 271 includes a riveting rematch between Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker for the middleweight title. Let's take a closer look at some of my favourite fights from the card, but first, let's recap last weekend's UFC Fight Night.

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker

This weekend's main event is a rematch between Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya for the middleweight title. Whittaker has only lost one fight since 2014 and has been a long-time favourite of mine. The man has made a career out of using effective defensive wrestling combined with a high-volume striking onslaught.

They will have more success if they can take Whittaker down than if they can strike him. Other competitors included Yoel Romero, Derek Brunson, and Jacare Souza. Whittaker was a huge underdog against most of them.

The fact that he defends takedowns at an 83 per cent lifetime rate is underestimated. He's hard to pin down. Whittaker lands 4.68 important strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.34 at a defensive rate of 61%. Those are impressive stats that illustrate his ability to land effectively while avoiding damage.

Having said that, he has fought in several battles, which have harmed his body. I chose Whittaker to lose only once, against Adesanya. For once, Adesanya isn't going after Whittaker. Adesanya is a world-class kickboxer with exceptional hitting mechanics.

While Whittaker still has his striking volume, he lacks the advantage against Adesanya that he has had in the past, which led to a painful defeat for Whittaker in 2019. To make way for Adesanya, Whittaker was knocked down late in Round 1 and out early in Round 2.

Since then, Adesanya has won three belt defences and only lost one, to Jan Blachowicz, at light heavyweight. Whittaker has won three straight fights over top contenders Darren Till, Jared Cannonier, and Kelvin Gastelum.

Whittaker is coming off one of his best performances ever against Gastelum, racking up 150 major strikes and four takedowns in a 25-minute win. The same Gastelum that nearly knocked Adesanya out in their 2019 title fight.

I liked seeing Whittaker wrestle against Gastelum since he hasn't needed to use it much in his career. Whittaker only scores 0.64 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is ineffective in this sport. But it was never a lack of competence, but rather a tool that was useless in most matches.

Whittaker should wrestle Adesanya on Saturday. Adesanya does defend takedowns at 80%. Whittaker's failure here would not be surprising. I think it's still necessary for him because it provides Whittaker with another way to win and gives Adesanya another instrument to use.

Adesanya has been knocked down seven times in his last two fights, including against Blachowicz. It's still his weakest link and most vulnerable location. Obviously, an opponent will not expose Adesanya in striking exchanges.

If Whittaker can't get takedowns, he'll have to beat Adesanya at the range, like he did in 2019. Whittaker scores more than Adesanya, who only scores 3.94 major strikes per minute. In fact, he only absorbs 2.59 signature attacks per minute, with a 62 per cent defensive rate.

In the first fight, Whittaker tried to close distance and his chin buckled. I wouldn't be surprised if it happened again on Saturday. In terms of technical prowess and the possibility of knockout, Adesanya has the edge. The two knockdowns were all that separated the pair in the first fight, and I expect the same in the rematch.

Basically, if Adesanya doesn't knock Whittaker down, this fight will be close. I expect Whittaker to be taken down by either side. Whittaker just missed Adesanya by eight blows in the first fight, and he still attempts more strikes.

Whittaker can win this bout with volume and wrestling, and I don't think he'll be stopped. We've seen Adesanya get hurt, notably by Gastelum, and a top talent like Whittaker may land something effective that changes the fight.

Saturday's matchup may be slower-paced than last year's. I seriously doubt Whittaker runs chin first into Adesanya's range after a KO loss. Deflecting a wrestling strike may also make Adesanya more defensive. So, if I had to pick a prop, I'd go with Adesanya at +170. Not a horrible line, but it's a result more dependent on variation and durability, and that's a result I tend to avoid.

If you want to chase an underdog, I think Whittaker at +240, or 29.41 per cent implied, is a slight value. Although Whittaker is in an unfavourable position, I expect this bout to be more competitive than the one in 2019.

UFC 271: Andrei Arlovski vs. Jared Vanderaa Prediction

It's difficult to take a large risk on a 43-year-old boxer, but the betting market continues to ignore Andrei Arlovski. Arlovski is a seasoned pro. Now a legend who lures opponents into a slow-paced striking match that he can win on volume, precision striking and defence.

Jared Vanderaa is a fast puncher who likes to press forward. It works against a certain level of opposition, but not against someone like Arlovski. It's hard to imagine Vanderaa rushing in to storm the pocket against Arlovski's planned style, but a couple of strong jabs to the face will certainly entice him into a sustained distance striking duel. Arlovski should be able to perform once there.

Vanderaa's UFC losses came against grapplers, and while I'd be surprised if Arlovski became a wrestler, it may be an advantage if he wanted to engage in the clinch or grappling here. I'll take Andrei Arlovski's 5 units. In spite of his age, he's proved he can take damage from non-power punchers (like Vanderaa) and I expect him to win minutes and a decision, if not the finish.

UFC 271: Jared Cannonier vs. Derek Brunson Prediction

My final wager is on Derek Brunson to win by decision. The Moneyline has Cannonier as the slight favourite, but I think this prop is a bit out of wack given that I believe Brunson has won a majority of his fights by decision (about 70%), so we're getting some value here.

Jared Cannonier is a threat on the feet, but Brunson has the better wrestling and has made it a priority in his recent rise to prominence. While many will recall Cannonier's superb takedown defence versus Kelvin Gastelum, I'll need to see it again against a fighter with more knockout potential standing and a stronger, larger frame to help his grappling. Cannonier struggled with defensive wrestling at light heavyweight, and while he has improved in other facets of his game since then, this may be his toughest wrestling assignment yet.

Cannonier is a difficult guy, especially at middleweight, and he has strong submission defence, thus a win for Brunson would surprise me. To sum it up, Brunson should be semi-competitive standing, and if he can engage in the clinch and grappling, he has the keys to a decision victory.

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 Full Fight Card Predictions

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 Main Event Prediction

Middleweight (185lbs): Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker – Whittaker via Decision

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 Main Card Predictions

Heavyweight (265lbs): Derrick Lewis vs. Tai Tuivasa – Lewis via KO/TKO

Middleweight (185lbs): Jared Cannonier vs. Derek Brunson – Brunson via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Kyler Phillips vs. Marcelo Rojo – Phillips via Submission

Lightweight (155lbs): Bobby Green vs. Nasrat Haqparast – Haqparast via Decision

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 Prelim Card Predictions

Heavyweight (265lbs): Andrei Arlovski vs. Jared Vanderaa – Arlovski via Decision

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Roxanne Modafferi vs. Casey O'Neill – O’Neill via Decision

Flyweight (125lbs): Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell – Perez via KO/TKO

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): William Knight vs. Maxim Grishin – Grishin via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Ronnie Lawrence vs. Mana Martinez – Lawrence via Decision

Lightweight (155lbs): Renato Moicano vs. Alexander Hernandez – Moicano via Decision

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Carlos Ulberg vs. Fabio Cherant – Ulberg via KO/TKO

Middleweight (185lbs): Jacob Malkoun vs. AJ Dobson – Malkoun via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): D. Silva de Andrade vs. Sergey Morozov – Morozov via Decision

Welterweight (170lbs): Jeremiah Wells vs. Mike Mathetha – Wells via Submission