UFC 267 predictions

In Abu Dhabi, two very distinct championship storylines are going to unfold. Jan Blachowicz defends his light heavyweight title for the second time against Glover Teixeira, one of MMA's beloved senior statesmen, in the main event of UFC 267. The hardcore has been clamouring for Teixeira to receive another opportunity at UFC gold, and with Blachowicz's victory over middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, the stage was set for the two friendly veterans to square off.

With Jon Jones out of the picture and Blachowicz having built a résumé at 205 pounds that have secured his reputation regardless of what happens in the future, Blachowicz can add to it by defeating one of the division's mainstays. On Teixeira's side, the Brazilian understands that this is his final chance to reach the summit, and if he wins on Saturday, it would mark the end of one of the most unexpected title runs in MMA history.

The co-main event promises to be less definitive, as we have two competitors vying for the title of greatest bantamweight in the world, but the UFC's reigning champion is out due to a neck injury. Petr Yan, the former champion, has a strong case, with many experts believing he was on his way to successfully defend his championship against Aljamain Sterling until losing by disqualification in the fourth round of UFC 259.

However, if Yan loses to Cory Sandhagen (who is standing in for Sterling on short notice, thus an interim championship is now up for grabs), it will just muddy the waters more, considering Sandhagen recently lost to Sterling in the first round through submission. Sandhagen bounced back with knockouts of perennial contenders Frankie Edgar and Marlon Moraes before losing a close split decision to T.J. Dillashaw, but a win over Yan might persuade fans that Sandhagen is the man to beat at bantamweight when Sterling returns.

In other main card action, Dan Hooker fills in for the injured Islam Makhachev at lightweight, Alexander Volkov attempts to halt Marcin Tybura's five-fight victory run at heavyweight, and Dan Hooker fights lightweight ace Islam Makhachev on short notice. In a welterweight encounter, Li Jingliang welcomes Khamzat Chimaev back to the cage, while fast-rising light heavyweight contender Magomed Ankalaev fights Volkan Oezdemir, a former UFC title challenger.

Jan Blachowicz (1) vs. Glover Teixeira (2)

It appears that whoever guy lands first will be crowned UFC light heavyweight champion in Abu Dhabi. It's possible that Jan Blachowicz and Glover Teixeira may engage in a five-round war of attrition, but I doubt it will go past the third round.

At this point in their careers, neither man is known for their explosiveness, so I'll take the safe bet and say Blachowicz beats Teixeira to the punch and retains. In striking, I give Blachowicz the advantage, and in grappling, he has more than enough tricks up his sleeve to withstand a targeted ground attack from Teixeira. Blachowicz should be able to avoid submissions and save his energy in the grappling exchanges until he can re-establish control of the bout.

It's impossible to predict who will survive once the leather begins to fly and make no mistake, there will be plenty of exhilarating moments in this one where both fighters' lights are just a hair away from being turned off. So, out of respect for the champ — and to make up for my previous doubts — I'm going with Blachowicz. (I picked Israel Adesanya, Dominick Reyes, and Corey Anderson to beat Blachowicz.) Yikes!).

Pick: Blachowicz

Petr Yan (T1) vs. Cory Sandhagen (4)

Full disclosure: In our Global Rankings, I was one of four MMA Fighting panellists who voted for Aljamain Sterling to be the No. 1 bantamweight. That isn't to say I don't think Petr Yan is deserving of the title of best 135er on the globe, and it certainly doesn't mean I'm siding with him in this fight.

Cory Sandhagen deserves credit for stepping up and seizing the moment, but Yan should be able to sort out his rangy, unconventional attacking approach. Both guys will put on a show of feints and range-finding, with some playful spinning thrown in for good measure. As corny as it may seem, this is a "don't blink" matchup if ever there was one.

If the fight falls to the ground, Sandhagen's long limbs could be useful, but Yan shut down Sterling's grappling in their bout, and he can do the same in this one. This means the fight will be decided on the feet, and Yan, simply put, is the best striker in a stacked bantamweight division. We could be dealing with a classic here, one that Yan will put on the cards.

Pick: Yan

Islam Makhachev (6) vs. Dan Hooker (9)

In terms of street cred, Dan Hooker already has a 10-8 advantage over pretty much everyone else on the planet. Hooker isn't only coming in to face Islam Makhachev on short notice; he's doing it a month after a win over Nasrat Haqparast, which was preceded by Hooker having to make weight despite not knowing if he'd be allowed in the United States until days before fight night. Not to mention the fact that most lightweights are unlikely to go on to battle Makhachev and his eight-fight winning streak.

With Makhachev, the heir apparent to the Khabib Nurmagomedov dynasty who appears destined to challenge for a UFC title in the near future, he has a difficult assignment. Makhachev's wrestling has made him practically untouchable, and while Hooker is his most difficult opponent yet, there's nothing in Hooker's profile that says he'll be the one to stop Makhachev.

Hooker will undoubtedly win in the standup if the fight stays there, but Makhachev's takedown game is superior, and Hooker is more than likely in for a miserable 15 minutes. Despite Hooker's strong wrestling defence, Makhachev, like Nurmagomedov, is capable of making even the most seasoned fighters look inexperienced on the mats.

The only real question is whether Hooker can hold his own against Makhachev. I believe Hooker will be forced to tap out late in the second or early in the third round, despite his toughness.

Pick: Makhachev

Alexander Volkov (6) vs. Marcin Tybura (8)

For all the Marcin Maniacs out there (you know who you are), Marcin Tybura's miraculous run is likely to come to an end today. Given my track record in forecasting fights, this option, on the other hand, maybe music to your ears.

I have Volkov winning a unanimous decision over Tybura, who quietly pulled together a 4-0 2020 campaign before adding to it earlier this year with a knockout of Walt Harris. Tybura, unlike Volkov, hasn't fought a truly elite heavyweight in the last few years, but Volkov has fought Ciryl Gane, Alistair Overeem, and Curtis Blaydes. That's the kind of competitiveness that brings out the best in people.

Volkov knows how to make the most of his reach and will keep Tybura on the outside as long as he can. This one gets fascinating as it gets closer, as Tybura has taken his ground offence to a new level. Yes, he's been finishing fighters like Harris and Greg Hardy who lack ground defence, but those kinds of performances can only help his confidence.

Because I trust Volkov not to be caught on his back despite Tybura's best attempts, I'm leaning toward the striker over the grappler here.

Pick: Volkov

Li Jingliang vs. Khamzat Chimaev

The matchmakers have done an excellent job here, as Khamzat Chimaev faces a difficult but not insurmountable challenge in Li Jingliang. Given that Li is coming off the most impressive win of his career, a first-round knockout of Santiago Ponzinibbio, it's strange that he's such a huge underdog today. Chimaev's epic two-wins-in-ten-days run on Fight Island, which he followed up with a 17-second knockout of Gerald Meerschaert, is a testament to the amount of buzz he generated last year. The potential of what's to come has loomed huge over both the middleweight and welterweight divisions, thanks to his talent.

Chimaev looks to prefer the welterweight class, and if he's serious about making a run and eliminating contenders one by one, he'll start with Li. Even though Chimaev has finished all of his opponents thus far, "The Leech" possesses heavy hands and high durability, so if Li turns this into a gunfight, it might go badly for Chimaev.

Chimaev will likely test the waters on his feet first, and if things don't go his way, he'll go for a blast double and put Li on his back. Li's ground defence will be tested, as he may find it difficult to keep Chimaev off of him. Chimaev, in my opinion, still has a lot of work to do to live up to the hype, but I've been impressed with what I've seen so far, so I'll go with the flow and pick Chimaev in the first round.

Pick: Chimaev

Magomed Ankalaev (12) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (13)

Don't look now, but Magomed Ankalaev is approaching. With five straight victories, Saturday's headliner is tied for the second-best winning streak in light heavyweight, according to most fans. You might wonder who's ahead of them. None other than Ankalaev, who has won his last six fights and would be 7-0 in the UFC if it weren't for Paul Craig's last-second miracle in Ankalaev's UFC debut.

Ankalaev is a powerful, precise striker who, if he can control the range and avoid any grinding clinch exchanges, should have the upper hand against Oezdemir. If any of Ankalaev's bad defensive habits resurface, Oezdemir might score a shock knockout.

Ankalaev, on the other hand, has recently demonstrated that he belongs in a different league. I'm convinced he's worked out the wrinkles in his game and will locate Oezdemir's chin before making any fatal mistakes. Does this imply that at 205 pounds, Ankalaev belongs among the best? It's unclear, but he should win this weekend.

Pick: Ankalaev

Preliminaries

Virna Jandiroba (14) def. Amanda Ribas (T11)

Zubaira Tukhugov def. Ricardo Ramos

Albert Duraev def. Roman Kopylov

Benoit Saint-Denis def. Elizeu Zaleski

Michal Oleksiejczuk def. Shamil Gamzatov

Lerone Murphy def. Makwan Amirkhan

Andre Petroski def. Hu Yaozong

Tagir Ulanbekov def. Allan Nascimento