UFC 269: Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier Prediction
For the first time in his UFC career, Charles Oliveira will be charged with defending a title. He won the UFC lightweight championship by TKO (punches) in the second round against Michael Chandler on May 15, extending his record to 31-8 with no contest. On Saturday, he'll take on Dustin Poirier, the most difficult opponent he's ever faced.
Poirier (28-6, 1 NC) is coming off back-to-back victories over Conor McGregor, the latter of which was decided by a doctor stoppage in the first round after McGregor broke his tibia. After defeating Max Holloway on April 13, 2019, he held the interim lightweight title but lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov in the UFC lightweight title battle a few months later. Both fighters are among the finest pound-for-pound fighters in the UFC, and they are expected to put on one of the year's most interesting fights.
Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier odds for UFC 269
- Charles Oliveira: +138
- Dustin Poirier: -170
Poirier is a -170 favourite, which means bettors would have to stake $170 to win $100. If someone bets $100 on Oliveira and he wins, they will profit $138.
Oliveira vs. Poirier prediction
Oliveira and Poirier are preparing for one of the most anticipated title fights of the year, with Oliveira ranked No. 8 in the UFC's pound-for-pound rankings and Poirier ranked No. 5. These fighters are quite evenly matched when it comes to the storey of the video. Oliveira is 5'10" tall, whereas Poirier is 5'9". Oliveira has a 74-inch reach, whereas Poirier has a 72-inch reach. Oliveira has a 41-inch leg reach, whereas Poirier has a 40.5-inch leg reach.
The experience that each boxer has had in their fighting careers is a significant distinction between the two warriors. Despite having the championship belt, Oliveira hasn't encountered the same hurdles as Poirier has. In his career, Poirier has defeated Justin Gaethje, Dan Hooker, and Conor McGregor, all of whom are now listed in the top ten of the UFC's lightweight rankings. He has three TKOs and a unanimous decision victory over those opponents. Poirier also has a battle against Nurmagomedov under his belt, which unified the lightweight titles.
Oliveira has TKO and unanimous decision victories over Chandler and Tony Ferguson, his two most recent victories over current top 10 UFC lightweight fighters. Chandler, on the other hand, gave Ferguson a tougher fight than the score suggests, hitting more total and meaningful strikes and dropping him in the first round, and Ferguson has been struggling in recent fights.
Oliveira, on the other hand, will have a harder problem dealing with Poirier's punches than Chandler. Poirier lands 5.62 major blows per minute on average, compared to Chandler's 4.29, and he'll attempt to keep the fight high in the air, where he can maintain the advantage. He's also a more accurate striker, connecting on 51% of his tries compared to Chandler's 49%.
Oliveira has demonstrated that his fighting style is more suited to takedowns and mat submissions. He has 19 submission victories to Poirier's six, and he averages 2.64 takedowns per 15 minutes to Poirier's 1.5. He'd have to face a flurry of attacks from a seasoned fighter to force his opponent to the ground. Oliveira is a good defender, with a 54 per cent significant strike defence and only 3.01 significant strike absorbed per minute, but Poirier should be able to hit him hard as he tries to grapple.
Poirier can also protect himself from takedowns. He has a career takedown accuracy of 61 per cent and prefers to fight from a standing posture, where he is more effective. Oliveira's ascension to the top of the lightweight division has been stunning, but he will face a more experienced opponent on Saturday. Poirier wins the belt before the final bell, despite Oliveira's best efforts.
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