UFC 269 predictions

The lightweight title battle between incumbent division ruler Charles Oliveira and previous interim straphanger Dustin Poirier will headline a championship pay-per-view (PPV) doubleheader inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday night (Dec. 11). Before that five-round brawl in "Sin City," current women's bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes will take on the longstanding 135-pound challenger and one-time Ultimate Fighter (TUF) winner Julianna Pena, who will try to remove the sword from the stone.

UFC Lightweight Champion Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (31-8, 1 NC) vs. Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier (28-6, 1 NC)

Tomorrow night in "Sin City," Charles Oliveira will defend his lightweight championship for the first time, and a win will help silence some of the doubters who say "Do Bronx" isn't the "genuine" champion. We can't really fault Oliveira for not fighting Khabib Nurmagomedov, who retired in late 2020, but there's a case to be made that he got to the top by defeating the top two 155-pound contenders, Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier. It didn't make sense at the time, given that "The Highlight" was coming off a loss to Nurmagomedov and Poirier was more interested in continuing his rivalry with Conor McGregor, presumably because "The Diamond" has children and a "Notorious" fight brings in the kind of life-changing money that most fighters can only dream of. Poirier, for example, won two of them in a single year, so I'm sure it'll be a very happy Christmas at Casa de Diamond.

In the absence of those two opponents, Oliveira was partnered against former Bellator MMA champion Michael Chandler, and "Do Bronx" delivered another fantastic performance, securing yet another finish and another "Fight Night" bonus to go along with his 155-pound title. Whatever problems the Brazilian had earlier in his career appear to have been resolved or outgrown, albeit it helps that his competition has been decent but not exceptional. After losing to Paul Felder at UFC 218, Oliveira went on a 7-0 run, however, two of those competitors are no longer with the organisation, and the other five were not ranked in the Top 15. There are also doubts about what Tony Ferguson had to give in the wake of his snuff film (co-starring Justin Gaethje), and Michael Chandler has a losing record in the UFC despite his high-octane fighting style. This isn't meant to diminish Oliveira's accomplishments — they've been incredible — but these are the finer points to consider when pitting him against one of the finest lightweights in the world.

Poirier, 32, had his share of issues earlier in his career, going from promising featherweight to the lightweight intermediary, much like Oliveira. After watching "The Diamond" get scratched by Michael Johnson in late 2016, I honestly don't think anyone could have imagined this kind of run. Following that, he went on an 8-0 streak (with one No Contest), featuring victories over three previous UFC lightweight champions. Poirier also stopped 145-pound dynamo Max Holloway and avenged his loss to Conor McGregor along the way, leaving him one victory away from winning my "Fighter of the Year" award. It's even more astounding when you realise that this recent hot streak follows his loss to Nurmagomedov, which gives you a sense of where "The Diamond" is emotional. I don't think the pressure surrounding this weekend's blockbuster in Las Vegas will frighten a fighter who would risk his legacy (as well as his opportunity at the title) by volunteering for a third Conor McGregor bout. Let's just pray no one loses their footing.

This matchup can be viewed in a lot of different ways. Oliveira is a well-known grappler with a long list of accomplishments, but he's also been submitted three times, twice by guillotine. Over the last decade, Poirier has only been submitted once, and that was against Nurmagomedov. Oliveira has proven to be just as deadly on his feet as he is on his feet, picking up three knockouts in the last two years. However, I'm not sure he wants to fight a powerful, blood-and-guts banger like Poirier, who has a somewhat shorter reach but throws from a southpaw posture. This bout will most likely come down to who can control the wrestling, which has its own set of hazards when two competitors have mastered the guillotine. I can tell you that whoever wins will most likely not surprise you. From top to bottom, we have two successful veterans with championship experience and high-level skills. When that's the case, we have to consider the intangibles, and I'm not sure if there's a lightweight (or any other division) fighter that can sweat, struggle, and bleed like Poirier — yet somehow become more dangerous as the battle progresses.

Prediction: Poirier def. Oliveira by technical knockout

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Amanda “Lioness” Nunes (21-4) vs. Julianna “Venezuelan Vixen” Pena (10-4)

Julianna Pena has a chance to win this fight, which will get a lot of sneers from "Lioness" fans, but Amanda Nunes is in for a tough fight. Remember that success begets weakness, and when it comes to women's MMA, no one is more successful than the Brazilian bomber. Nunes has faced a constant series of overmatched and outgunned opponents across two weight classes outside of her Valentina Shevchenko matches. Former champions Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg, Miesha Tate, and Holly Holm were devastated, not just vanquished. I'm not sure what else I can say about Nunes that isn't already self-evident. She's the best striker in the category, with the strongest hands, and enough championship experience to go down in MMA history. She's also a skilled jiu-jitsu fighter who uses deceptive submissions. If "Lioness" is a bloated -900 favourite, she certainly deserves it.

Julianna Pena, a long-time bantamweight contender, won the glass trophy on Season 18 of The Ultimate Fighter and was working her way up the 135-pound ladder. Then, in early 2017, she suffered a submission loss to Shevchenko, arguably the best female fighter after Nunes. "The Venezuelan Vixen" then took a two-year hiatus to be a stay-at-home parent before returning in summer 2019, with a 2-1 record and one finish. Even if she was 3-0 with three knockouts, does anyone believe it would make a difference against a lethal power puncher like Nunes? There's nothing Pena could have done in the last few years that would have made anyone pick her, and it has more to do with Nunes' success than any flaws in the challenger. Pena is an excellent wrestler who averages 2.5 takedowns a fight and can go all out for 25 minutes without losing strength or stamina. And, yes, she will continue to spam takedowns as long as the fight is ongoing.

This should be another easy day at the office if Nunes has been practising as hard as she would for a Shevchenko rematch. If, on the other hand, the champion has spent the majority of her gym time playing peek-a-boo with her child or counting her belts in the ATT trophy case, she'll be in a very vulnerable position when the third round arrives and she's out of steam. Is it the kind of result I'd wager my money on? No, I am not a moron (at least when it comes to my money). Nunes is still the clear favourite, and for good reason. At the same time, it would be unreasonable to expect her to simply walk into the cage and score a quick knockout. Pena is unafraid of the "Lioness" legend and maybe the most hungry opponent Nunes has faced in years. Furthermore, scoring a knockout is difficult when you spend the majority of the fight in reverse, forced against the fence or, even worse, suffocated on the mat. Also, keep in mind that Pena only takes in 1.7 meaningful strikes per minute. Sorry, I know what everyone wants to hear is "Nunes by knockout," but my intuition tells me otherwise.

Prediction: Pena def. Nunes by submission

Santiago “Argentine Dagger” Ponzinibbio (28-4) vs. Geoff “Handz of Steel” Neal (13-4)

Santiago Ponzinibbio has had a difficult couple of years, missing more than two years of his athletic prime owing to injuries and illness. The "Argentine Dagger" was destroyed by welterweight "Leech" Li Jingliang upon his return, knocking him out of the welterweight Top 10. In June, the Argentinian bounced back with a unanimous decision win against the unheralded Miguel Baeza to keep his No. 11 standing in the promotion's official rankings. That puts him two slots below Neal, who was inducted into the UFC Hall of Shame last week after being arrested on DWI and weapons charges. Whether or not this affects "Handz of Steel" on fight night is entirely dependent on the 170-pound Texan's mental game. I believe that if Neal were a bigger name in the sport, there would be a far bigger spotlight on him and many more distractions than a couple of dopey questions from reporters from MMA-RAGE-BRO.com during the pre-fight media day on Wednesday.

I don't think it's a surprise that this battle will be fought virtually entirely on the ground. Ponzinibbio and Neal both win more than half of their fights by knockout and average less than one takedown per fight. Neal is a few inches shorter than the "Argentine Dagger," but he has a two-inch reach advantage, which could cause all sorts of issues from the southpaw posture. When two fighters are throwing bricks at each other, the one with the superior defence has the best chance of winning – at least in principle. Even with strikes absorbed per minute (about 4.5) and striking defence, they're very much dead in this situation (63 per cent for Ponzinibbio, 62 per cent for Neal). Expect a close, tough battle, but it's difficult to select Neal after watching him lose two consecutive fights, the most recent of which was a lacklustre effort against Neil Magny in which "Handz of Steel" threw just 37 blows during the whole fight.

Prediction: Ponzinibbio def. Neal by unanimous decision

Cody “No Love” Garbrandt (12-4) vs. Kai “Don’t Blink” Kara-France (22-9, 1 NC)

There was a time when Cody Garbrandt was largely regarded as the top bantamweight fighter in the world, and the official UFC rankings reflected this. "No Love" was ranked No. 5 on the promotion's pound-for-pound ranking in addition to his position atop the 135-pound chart. Garbrandt is widely believed to have had a total collapse following those rankings, losing four of his next five matches and being knocked out three times. TJ Dillashaw, hulked up on EPO, was even rumoured to have stolen his soul with back-to-back finishes in their championship twofer.

I'm sure it helped, but I believe it had more to do with the fact that Garbrandt spent the first half of his UFC career on Easy Street, annihilating bantamweight pushovers like Marcus Brimage and Augusto Mendes. In fact, Garbrandt's first five opponents in the Octagon have all been released by the UFC. His most stunning win to date came in the final against Dominick Cruz, the same "Dominator" who had only one finish in the previous decade. There's a good chance we'll see the same Garbrandt we saw in 2015-16, except this time against superior competition, and the results have left "No Love" with "No Choice" but to drop down to flyweight.

Kai Kara-France, a promising but inconsistent addition to the promotion's lightest weight class, will be there to greet him. Despite going to the scorecards in his first five UFC fights, the Aucklander had the dubious nickname "Don't Blink," but since he pasted Rogerio Bontorin at UFC 259, I guess we'll have to let him have it for a little longer. I don't have many good things to say about Kara-France because he hasn't accomplished anything during his tenure in the UFC. "Don't Blink" hasn't beaten anyone in the Top 15 except Bontorin. It's a rather devastating figure, given the flyweight division's — or lack thereof's — depth. It's also worth noting that throughout their furious battle, Kara-France was being manhandled by Bontorin before landing a finisher.

In a fight like the one we'll see tomorrow night, that's a crucial sequence to remember. Despite his wrestling experience, Garbrandt hasn't done much mat work until the Rob Font fight, where "No Love" went 3-10 on takedown attempts. There's a chance we'll see more of the same against Kara-France, but I have a feeling that after losing to Font with a wrestle-heavy offence, Garbrandt will go back to his old ways. That's unfortunate because, despite his footwork, I believe he wins this bout with his wrestling more than his boxing, because "No Love" absorbs more than four significant hits each minute. Kara-France isn't a lock, but he's a proven commodity at 125 pounds fighting a fighter trying to make the flyweight limit on The Machinist diet. Will he lose his knockout power as a result of that significant cut? Or do you think it'll make him more vulnerable to knockouts? Garbrandt has the burden of proof, and without definite answers to the myriad issues surrounding his performance this weekend in Vegas, Kara-France is the safe bet.

Prediction: Kara-France wins by knockout over Garbrandt.

 “Sugar” Sean O’Malley (14-1) vs. Raulian Paiva (21-3)

Kevin Lee, the "Motown Phenom," just received his walking papers, and on his way out, he advised young, up-and-coming fighters to avoid "difficult fights" and "cherry select" softer opponents. Sean O'Malley, a 135-pound sensation, looks to be following this plan, despite his talent (and potential), since he sits comfortably outside the bantamweight Top 15. Most likely because "Sugar" is paid the same regardless of who he fights, so why not take the easy way out? With a 6-1 record, four knockouts, and five performance bonuses, it's difficult to argue with a winning formula. Because he's put his career on cruise control, it's even more difficult to tell what kind of boxer O'Malley is (or will become). One thing is certain: O'Malley strikes like a truck, however, I believe we can all agree that in today's fight game, power can only go you so far.

It'll be interesting to watch where it takes him on Saturday night. Rising bantamweight bruiser Raulian Paiva, like O'Malley, is a graduate of Dana White's "Contender Series" testing ground, is hoping to sour the "Sugar Show." Paiva was anticipated to establish a name for himself in the 125-pound division, but a series of harsh weight cuts, as well as losses to flyweight standouts Kai Kara-France and Rogerio Bontorin, forced him to move up to bantamweight. Based on his shock victory over Kyler Phillips in July, the strategy appears to have paid off. Paiva, on the other hand, gives up three inches in height and reach to a striker who lands 8.37 important strikes per minute. That is not just the highest in the bantamweight division, but it is also the highest in the whole organisation – regardless of weight class. The 4.94 striking difference of O'Malley makes every "Sugar" battle a 15-minute shooting gallery. When compared to the Brazilian's 4.90 strikes per minute, it's difficult to imagine this battle going the distance. That's awful news for a fighter who has won 14 of his 21 fights by decision.

Prediction: O'Malley knocks out Paiva.